H-1B Visa Numbers FY2026 vs FY2027: Registrations, Selection Rates, and What the Data Shows

H-1B Registration Numbers Are Plummeting — and That Changes Everything

The H-1B program is in the middle of a historic correction. After years of runaway registration volumes that peaked near 800,000 in FY2024, the numbers have collapsed by more than 50% in just two years. For applicants still in the pool, this means dramatically better odds. For the broader immigration system, it signals a fundamental shift in who uses the H-1B program and why.

Here is what the official USCIS data shows — and what it means for anyone navigating the H-1B process in 2026.

The Numbers: FY2024 Through FY2027

The trend is unmistakable. Total registrations have dropped from roughly 780,000 in FY2024 to an estimated 200,000–250,000 for FY2027 — a decline of nearly 70% in three years.

Why Registrations Are Falling So Fast

Five factors are driving the collapse simultaneously:

1. Beneficiary-Centric Selection Killed Duplicate Registrations

Starting with FY2025, USCIS switched from employer-centric to beneficiary-centric selection. Under the old system, a single worker could be registered by multiple employers, giving them multiple lottery tickets. Some beneficiaries had 10 or more registrations. The new system gives each unique beneficiary one chance regardless of how many employers register them.

The impact was immediate. The registrations-per-beneficiary ratio dropped from 1.66 in FY2024 to 1.06 in FY2025 and 1.01 in FY2026. The duplicate registration scheme is effectively dead.

2. The $100,000 Supplemental Fee

Signed into effect on September 19, 2025, the $100,000 supplemental fee applies to new H-1B petitions for beneficiaries who are outside the United States at the time of filing. This single policy change priced most offshore outsourcing firms out of the bulk registration game. When it costs $100,000 on top of standard filing fees to bring someone from abroad, the math only works for genuinely high-value roles.

Key exemptions exist: F-1 OPT students already in the US do not trigger the fee, and neither do H-1B workers already in the country. This effectively redirects the program toward workers who are already in the US — predominantly international students graduating from American universities.

3. The $215 Registration Fee

The registration fee jumped from $10 to $215 — a 2,050% increase. While $215 is not a major barrier on its own, it adds friction and cost to speculative registrations. When companies were paying $10 per registration, filing for dozens of workers was trivially cheap. At $215 per head, employers are more selective about who they register.

4. Wage-Weighted Selection

For FY2027, USCIS implemented a wage-weighted lottery system for the first time. Higher-wage positions receive more virtual entries:

Level I (Entry): 1 entry

Level II (Qualified): 2 entries

Level III (Experienced): 3 entries

Level IV (Expert): 4 entries

This discourages employers from filing for low-wage positions where the selection odds are now significantly worse. Companies that traditionally sponsored large numbers of entry-level workers — particularly IT staffing and consulting firms — have reduced their registration volumes substantially.

5. AI-Powered Fraud Detection

USCIS has deployed artificial intelligence tools to flag anomalous registration patterns — shell company registrations, unusual wage-to-job-title combinations, and coordinated filing schemes. The agency has not disclosed specifics, but immigration attorneys report that suspect registrations are being flagged and investigated at much higher rates than in previous years.

What Higher Selection Rates Mean for Applicants

The FY2026 selection rate of 35.3% was already the highest in three years. For FY2027, with lower registration volumes and the same 85,000 cap, selection rates could reach 40% or higher.

But there is a critical caveat: these aggregate rates mask enormous variation under the new wage-weighted system.

Estimated Selection Rates by Wage Level (FY2027)

If you are a Level IV applicant — a senior software engineer, experienced data scientist, or specialized professional earning well above median — your odds have never been better. If you are a Level I applicant, the system is working against you by design.

Which Employers Are Affected Most

The registration decline has not hit all employers equally. Offshore IT staffing firms that historically dominated the H-1B program with thousands of registrations per year have seen the largest drops. Companies like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, and Cognizant — which once filed for thousands of Level I and Level II positions — face a drastically different cost-benefit calculation under the combined pressure of the $100K fee, wage-weighted odds, and fraud detection.

Meanwhile, employers hiring from within the US — particularly from American university pipelines — are relatively unaffected by the $100K fee. Companies like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta continue to sponsor, though even they have reduced volumes amid broader tech layoffs and hiring freezes.

The Bigger Picture: A Structurally Different H-1B Program

What we are witnessing is not a temporary dip. The combination of policy changes has structurally reshaped who uses the H-1B program:

Fewer total applicants, but higher quality on average

Higher wages across the pool as low-wage filings become uneconomical

More US-based beneficiaries (F-1 students) relative to overseas workers

Less concentrated among a handful of outsourcing firms

Whether these changes are beneficial depends on your perspective. Applicants with strong credentials and high-wage offers are in the best position they have been in years. Entry-level workers and those being sponsored from abroad face a much harder path.

What to Watch for the Rest of FY2027

Several developments could shift the landscape further:

Second lottery possibility: USCIS has not announced a second lottery for FY2027, and given the lower registration volumes, one is considered unlikely. But if approval rates drop or enough selected petitions are not filed, a second round remains possible.

$100K fee litigation: Multiple lawsuits challenging the fee are working through federal courts. The US Chamber of Commerce, Association of American Universities, and 20 state attorneys general led by California have all filed challenges. A federal judge upheld the fee in December 2025, but appeals are pending.

FY2027 approval and denial rates: These will not be known until later in 2026 as petitions are adjudicated. Given the higher-quality applicant pool, approval rates may increase — but USCIS is also applying stricter scrutiny to specialty occupation claims.

Congressional action: Multiple bills proposing to reform or expand the H-1B program have been introduced, though none have gained significant traction. The politics of immigration remain deeply divided.

The Bottom Line

The H-1B program is smaller, more expensive, and more selective than at any point in its recent history. If you are planning to enter the FY2028 lottery next year, the data suggests your odds will be reasonable — especially at higher wage levels — but the cost of sponsorship has risen dramatically.

For employers, the calculus is clear: the era of cheap, high-volume H-1B sponsorship is over. The companies that succeed in this new environment will be those willing to pay competitive wages and absorb higher filing costs for genuinely essential talent.

All data sourced from USCIS official announcements, Fragomen, Ogletree Deakins, and Seyfarth Shaw analysis. Updated April 2026.